Invesight

Eli Lilly

LLYFY2025 · Based on 10-K

Pharmaceutical company surging with obesity drugs (Mounjaro, Zepbound) and diabetes treatments.

Market Cap

Revenue Growth

+55.9%

Operating Margin

31.7%

Revenue Structure

Cardiometabolic Health
56%+99% YoY
Oncology
8.8%+8% YoY
Immunology
6.9%
Neuroscience
2.8%
Other Products
25.5%-1% YoY
Revenue Structure
SegmentRevenuePercentYoY Growth
Cardiometabolic Health$36.5B56%99%
Oncology$5.7B8.8%8%
Immunology$4.5B6.9%N/A
Neuroscience$1.8B2.8%N/A
Other Products$16.6B25.5%-1%

Customer Concentration

Well-diversified customer base

Value Chain Related Stocks

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McKesson CorporationMCKSupplier

One of the three major U.S. wholesale distributors serving pharmacies and hospitals.

Significant revenue percentage in 2025, 2024, and 2023.

Source: Item 1, Marketing & Distribution

#2
Cencora, Inc.CORSupplier

One of the three major U.S. wholesale distributors serving pharmacies and hospitals.

Significant revenue percentage in 2025, 2024, and 2023.

Source: Item 1, Marketing & Distribution

#3
Cardinal Health, Inc.CAHSupplier

One of the three major U.S. wholesale distributors serving pharmacies and hospitals.

Significant revenue percentage in 2025, 2024, and 2023.

Source: Item 1, Marketing & Distribution

#4
China-based SuppliersSupplier

Reliance on China-based suppliers for integral chemical synthesis, reagents, starting materials, and ingredients.

Supply chain disruption risk due to geopolitical tensions and tariffs.

Source: Item 1, Supply Chain & Manufacturing; Item 1A, Risk Factors

#5
Contract Research Organizations (CROs)Supplier

Third parties outsourced for clinical trials.

Risk of non-performance or data breaches affecting trial timelines.

Source: Item 1A, Risk Factors

#6
Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMOs)Supplier

Third parties outsourced for manufacturing, device assembly, packaging, and distribution.

Risk of inspection delays or quality issues preventing product launches.

Source: Item 1A, Risk Factors

#7
Boehringer IngelheimPartner

Global collaboration partner for development and marketing of Jardiance and Basaglar.

Joint revenue generation from Jardiance and Basaglar.

Source: Item 1, Key Products

#8
Incyte CorporationINCYPartner

Collaboration partner for development and commercialization of Olumiant.

Revenue sharing from Olumiant sales.

Source: Item 1, Key Products

#9
Almirall S.A.Partner

Commercial partner for marketing Ebglyss in Europe.

Revenue from European sales of Ebglyss.

Source: Item 1, Key Products

#10
Innovent Biologics, Inc.Partner

Partner for marketing Tyvyt in China.

Revenue from Chinese sales of Tyvyt.

Source: Item 1, Key Products

#11
Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc.ADVMPartner

Acquired company providing Ixo-vec asset for wet age-related macular degeneration.

Pipeline expansion in neuroscience/ophthalmology.

Source: Item 7, Clinical Development Pipeline Highlights

#12
Scorpion TherapeuticsPartner

Partner for acquisition of STX-478 PI3Kα inhibitor program.

R&D pipeline expansion in oncology.

Source: Item 7, Financial Results

#13
SiteOne TherapeuticsPartner

Partner acquired to expand R&D portfolio.

R&D pipeline expansion.

Source: Item 7, Financial Results

Competitors

Boehringer IngelheimIncyte CorporationINCYAlmirall S.A.Innovent Biologics, Inc.Generic Pharmaceutical ManufacturersBiosimilar ManufacturersChinese Pharmaceutical Companies

Risk Factors

Counterfeit and Mass-Compounded Incretin Risks

High

Counterfeit and mass-compounded incretins in the U.S. and global markets threaten patient safety, brand reputation, and financial results by diverting sales and causing net price erosion.

Impact: Material revenue declines, price erosion, increased litigation costs, and regulatory scrutiny.

Pricing Controls under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

High

The IRA mandates government-set prices for single-source drugs starting 9-13 years post-approval, impacting key products like Jardiance, Trulicity, and Verzenio.

Impact: Reduced profitability, accelerated revenue erosion before patent expiry, and margin pressure in the U.S.

Loss of Intellectual Property Protection and Generic Entry

High

Patent expirations, data protection losses, or legal challenges can lead to rapid revenue declines as generics and biosimilars enter the market.

Impact: Severe revenue declines for key products like Trulicity and loss of market share.

Supply Chain Disruptions and China Dependency

High

Reliance on China-based suppliers combined with U.S.-China trade tensions creates risks of raw material shortages, tariffs, and production interruptions.

Impact: Product shortages, sales pauses, and increased manufacturing and procurement costs.

Insurance and PBM Formulary Placement Restrictions

Medium

Health plans and PBMs limit access by placing products on non-preferred tiers or requiring prior authorizations, reducing usage.

Impact: Reduced usage volumes, increased discounts and rebates, and lower net income.

R&D Failure and Clinical Trial Delays

Medium

High-cost clinical trials may fail due to efficacy or safety concerns, or face regulatory delays, resulting in lost investments.

Impact: Investment losses, pipeline gaps, and lack of future growth drivers.

Growth Drivers

Global Demand Surge for Mounjaro and Zepbound

Revenues grew 99% and 175% respectively in 2025, accounting for 56% of total revenue.

Outlook: Expected continued growth as treatments for diabetes and obesity, with expansion into new indications.

Pipeline Expansion with Orforglipron and Retatrutide

Orforglipron received a National Priority Voucher from the FDA; Retatrutide showed successful Phase 3 endpoints.

Outlook: Strengthening market dominance with the launch of an oral obesity treatment.

Neuroscience Growth with Alzheimer's Drug Kisunla

Approved in the U.S., EU, and Japan for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease.

Outlook: Establishing a leading position in the neurodegenerative disease market.

Manufacturing Capacity Expansion

Expanding facilities globally including North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Indiana; capital expenditures rose to $7.8 billion in 2025.

Outlook: Stabilizing supply chains to meet increasing demand.

Competitive Position: Market share Dominant leader in GLP-1/GIP agonists for diabetes and obesity (Mounjaro/Zepbound), holding significant market share in cardiometabolic health., Strong intellectual property portfolio, extensive manufacturing capacity, robust pipeline in high-growth areas (obesity, Alzheimer's), and established global distribution network.

Investment Insights

FY2025 · Based on 10-K

Eli Lilly reported strong growth in 2025, driven primarily by its Cardiometabolic Health segment, which accounted for 56% of total revenue thanks to the explosive demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound in diabetes and obesity treatment. The approval of the Alzheimer's drug Kisunla in Neuroscience and the advancement of next-generation pipeline candidates like Orforglipron further solidify its future growth trajectory. However, investors must weigh significant risk factors. Regulatory pressures from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), including government-set pricing and Medicaid negotiations, pose challenges to profitability. Additionally, the proliferation of counterfeit and mass-compounded incretin drugs threatens brand integrity and market share. Geopolitical tensions and reliance on China-based supply chains also introduce operational risks that could disrupt production. Overall, while Eli Lilly maintains a dominant market position with a robust innovation pipeline, its ability to navigate evolving regulatory landscapes, manage supply chain vulnerabilities, and mitigate competitive threats from generics will be critical determinants of its long-term financial performance and stock valuation.