Invesight

Microsoft

MSFTBased on 10-Q

Quarterly Earnings

View Annual 10-K

Revenue Trend

Metric2025-Q42025-Q32025-Q12024-Q4
Revenue (M$)
81,300
4.7%
77,673
10.8%
70,100
0.7%
69,600
Operating Margin
47.9%
0.8pp
48.7%
1.9pp
46.8%
2.9pp
43.9%

Segment Breakdown

Segment2025-Q42025-Q32025-Q12024-Q4
Productivity and Business Processes
34,100
16.0%
33,020
17.0%
29,900
10.0%
29,400
14.0%
Intelligent Cloud
32,900
29.0%
30,897
28.0%
26,800
21.0%
25,500
19.0%
More Personal Computing
14,300
3.0%
13,756
4.0%
13,400
6.0%
14,700
0.0%

YoY growth shown • Unit: M USD

Management Discussion (MD&A)

- Azure and other cloud services revenue surged 39% YoY, driving total Microsoft Cloud revenue up 26% to $51.5 billion. - Microsoft signed a new definitive agreement with OpenAI in October 2025, extending collaboration with reciprocal revenue sharing and IP rights for product integration. - Gaming revenue declined 5% due to drops in Xbox hardware volume and content/services, dragging down the More Personal Computing segment. - Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue grew 17%, driven by E5 adoption and increased Copilot usage.

Risk Updates

2025-Q4

- Tax risks have intensified due to significant gains from OpenAI investments, contrasting with prior year losses and affecting effective tax rates. - Operational cost pressures persist due to heavy reliance on GPUs and datacenter supply chains for AI infrastructure expansion. - The ongoing IRS audit regarding intercompany transfer pricing for tax years 2004–2013 continues to pose a potential liability of $28.9 billion plus penalties. - Cybersecurity risks remain elevated following the disclosure of a nation-state actor compromising internal systems and source code repositories.

2025-Q3

• No new or fundamentally changed risk factors were introduced this quarter compared to prior periods. • However, net losses from investments in OpenAI increased significantly to $4.1 billion, amplifying financial exposure. • The ongoing IRS audit regarding transfer pricing for tax years 2004–2013, seeking an additional $28.9 billion, remains a significant unresolved uncertainty.

2025-Q1

- The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) continues to challenge the Activision Blizzard acquisition, posing a risk of deal alteration or unwinding. - The IRS issued Notices of Proposed Adjustment (NOPAs) seeking an additional $28.9 billion regarding intercompany transfer pricing for tax years 2004–2013, representing a significant legal and financial exposure. - The European Commission designated Windows and LinkedIn as core platform services under the Digital Markets Act, imposing restrictions on self-preferencing and data usage. - Ongoing nation-state cyberattacks and zero-day vulnerabilities continue to threaten infrastructure integrity and customer data security.

2024-Q4

• Expanded IRS Audit Risk: The IRS is seeking an additional $28.9 billion plus penalties and interest regarding intercompany transfer pricing for tax years 2004–2013, with resolution not expected within 12 months. • Enhanced EU Regulatory Scrutiny: The European Commission has designated Windows and LinkedIn as core platform services under the Digital Markets Act, prohibiting self-preferencing and limiting data usage. • Escalating Cybersecurity Threats: A nation-state actor compromised a legacy test account in late 2023, raising concerns about ongoing exploitation and increased risks from AI-driven attacks and supply chain malware. • AI Regulatory Uncertainty: New regulations like the EU's AI Act and U.S. Executive Orders increase legal risks related to algorithmic bias, copyright infringement, and liability for AI-generated outputs.